--- title: "Howling Down case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Howling Down ($22.89) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.48% from 7 items with odds, observed 118.18% over 1,113 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Howling Down](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Howling Down A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169?window=all) Price · $22.89 · 36.05 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.48% · EV $19.79 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 118.18% · 1,113 openings, odds method Variance · 107.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96 openings · below min 7 days · 920 openings · below min 30 days · 118.18% ±60.81 1,113 openings since tracking started · 118.18% ±60.81 1,113 openings -0.5% 121.3% 243.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169?window=24h) | 96 | 35.06% ±207.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169?window=7d) | 920 | 96.77% ±66.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169) | 1,113 | 118.18% ±60.8 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/169?window=all) | 1,113 | 118.18% ±60.8 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,113 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,153 11,265 HUNT\_COIN | 36.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 250 | $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN | 21.0% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $156 245 HUNT\_COIN | 17.7% | 36 | 25.0 | 1.44× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $146 230 HUNT\_COIN | 16.6% | 21 | 25.0 | 0.84× | | [Sticker \| Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) | 30.0% | $4.01 6.32 HUNT\_COIN | 6.1% | 350 | 333.9 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) | 30.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 1.2% | 317 | 333.9 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) | 35.0% | $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN | 1.3% | 382 | 389.6 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $7,153 11,265 HUNT\_COIN 312.5x 2026-11-06 20:52 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Apumatic](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Apumatic) $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $7,153 11,265 HUNT\_COIN 312.5x 2026-11-03 06:06 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN 45.44x 2026-11-09 10:14 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN 45.44x 2026-11-07 11:08 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN 45.44x 2026-11-07 00:12 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [Leva\_alt2](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Leva_alt2) $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN 45.44x 2026-11-05 08:12 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [65roses](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/65roses) $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN 45.44x 2026-11-04 05:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=169) [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $4.01 6.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $4.01 6.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $4.01 6.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) [Hulk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hulk) $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $146 230 HUNT\_COIN 6.37x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $0.71 1.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $4.01 6.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $22.89 36.05 HUNT\_COIN $4.01 6.32 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.89 | 86.48% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.5% Ancient 2.3% classified 2.3% Rare 30.0% high 30.0% exotic 35.0% best hit $7,153 (312.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.48 on average: an expected loss of $13.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt