--- title: "Jungle case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Jungle ($147.62) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 73.65% over 41 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Jungle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Jungle A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172?window=all) Price · $147.62 · 233 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $127.69 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.65% · 41 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 41 openings · below min since tracking started · 41 openings · below min -0.5% 105.5% 211.5% **Small sample.** 41 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172?window=7d) | 6 | 23.12% ±188.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172) | 41 | 73.65% ±71.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/172?window=all) | 41 | 73.65% ±71.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.4K 16,406 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,639 4,156 HUNT\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2,361 3,719 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $1,178 1,855 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $667 1,050 HUNT\_COIN | 26.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.46× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $458 722 HUNT\_COIN | 28.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) | 12.5% | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 10.9% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-factory-new) | 12.5% | $82.97 131 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [XM1014 \| Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-well-worn) | 20.0% | $3.40 5.36 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-well-worn) | 20.0% | $1.94 3.06 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [gropin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/gropin) $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $667 1,050 HUNT\_COIN 4.52x 2026-11-04 06:05 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) Hidden $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $667 1,050 HUNT\_COIN 4.52x 2026-11-04 06:03 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $667 1,050 HUNT\_COIN 4.52x 2026-11-03 23:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=172) [Five-SeveN | Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $1.94 3.06 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC [XM1014 | Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $3.40 5.36 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $1.94 3.06 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC [XM1014 | Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $3.40 5.36 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) Hidden $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $111 175 HUNT\_COIN 0.75x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-factory-new) [Karl Ess](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Karl%20Ess) $148 233 HUNT\_COIN $82.97 131 HUNT\_COIN 0.56x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $148 | 86.50% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 8.8% legendary 0.1% classified 1.0% Covert 5.0% industrial 25.0% Consumer Grade 40.0% gray 20.0% best hit $667 (4.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt