--- title: "KD Farmer case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "KD Farmer ($4.97) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.48% from 14 items with odds, observed 81.26% over 432 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [KD Farmer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · KD Farmer A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174?window=all) Price · $4.97 · 7.82 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.48% · EV $4.29 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.26% · 432 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 82.26% ±16.02 390 openings 30 days · 81.26% ±15.22 432 openings since tracking started · 81.26% ±15.22 432 openings 13.5% 66.8% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174?window=24h) | 36 | 66.83% ±52.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174?window=7d) | 390 | 82.26% ±16.0 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174) | 432 | 81.26% ±15.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/174?window=all) | 432 | 81.26% ±15.2 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 432 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $155 245 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $94.44 149 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $75.70 119 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $38.90 61.26 HUNT\_COIN | 2.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $30.57 48.14 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.87× | | [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $20.29 31.95 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $16.04 25.27 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 5 | 8.6 | 0.58× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.93 18.79 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× | | [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.35 17.88 HUNT\_COIN | 13.2% | 25 | 21.6 | 1.16× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 12.5% | $7.90 12.45 HUNT\_COIN | 23.0% | 59 | 54.0 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Randy Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-randy-rush-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.42 8.54 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 60 | 64.8 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| One Shot One Kill sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-shot-one-kill) | 20.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 78 | 86.4 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Taste Bud sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-bud) | 20.0% | $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 98 | 86.4 | 1.13× | | [Sticker \| Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) | 20.0% | $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 83 | 86.4 | 0.96× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=174) [Sticker | One Shot One Kill sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-shot-one-kill) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $7.90 12.45 HUNT\_COIN 1.59x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | One Shot One Kill sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-shot-one-kill) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Sticker | One Shot One Kill sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-shot-one-kill) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $11.93 18.79 HUNT\_COIN 2.40x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [Sticker | Taste Bud sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-bud) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [Sticker | Taste Bud sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-bud) Hidden $4.97 7.82 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.97 | 86.48% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 7 20.0% covert 1.1% restricted 15.2% mil spec 14.7% Legendary 1.5% Restricted 2.5% classified 5.0% High Grade 20.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.48 on average: an expected loss of $13.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt