--- title: "5% Dreaming baby case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Dreaming baby ($4.70) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.75% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.56% over 502 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% Dreaming baby](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% Dreaming baby A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18?window=all) Price · $4.70 · 7.4 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.75% · EV $4.17 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.56% · 502 openings, odds method Variance · 44.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 80 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 21 openings · below min 7 days · 244 openings · below min 30 days · 94.56% ±58.63 502 openings since tracking started · 94.56% ±58.63 502 openings -0.5% 160.5% 321.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18?window=24h) | 21 | 33.97% ±286.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18?window=7d) | 244 | 145.90% ±84.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18) | 502 | 94.56% ±58.6 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/18?window=all) | 502 | 94.56% ±58.6 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 502 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $849 1,338 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $326 514 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $205 324 HUNT\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $95.47 150 HUNT\_COIN | 17.2% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $72.92 115 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.59× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $48.33 76.12 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT\_COIN | 16.0% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.29× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 473 | 476.9 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $326 514 HUNT\_COIN 69.45x 2026-11-07 12:22 UTC [AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $326 514 HUNT\_COIN 69.45x 2026-11-05 21:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=18) [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.4 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.70 | 88.75% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 0.1% covert 4.9% classified 0.1% Consumer Grade 95.0% best hit $326 (69.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.75 on average: an expected loss of $11.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt