--- title: "10% falling in love case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% falling in love ($5.24) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.61% from 14 items with odds, observed 59.69% over 281 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% falling in love](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% falling in love A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19?window=all) Price · $5.24 · 8.25 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.61% · EV $4.64 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 59.69% · 281 openings, odds method Variance · 15.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 73.76% ±60.06 167 openings 30 days · 59.69% ±46.30 281 openings since tracking started · 59.69% ±46.30 281 openings 12.5% 73.5% 134.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19?window=7d) | 167 | 73.76% ±60.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19) | 281 | 59.69% ±46.3 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/19?window=all) | 281 | 59.69% ±46.3 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 281 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $451 711 HUNT\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $368 580 HUNT\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $179 282 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $142 224 HUNT\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $123 193 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $96.73 152 HUNT\_COIN | 6.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $75.70 119 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $39.58 62.34 HUNT\_COIN | 12.8% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $35.77 56.33 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $24.29 38.26 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $24.03 37.85 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× | | [Sticker \| OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 256 | 252.9 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=19) [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) [EdgaDarog](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/EdgaDarog) $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | OG (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-glitter) Hidden $5.24 8.25 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.24 | 88.61% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.1% covert 5.7% mil spec 0.6% #eb4b4b 0.1% rare 0.6% red 1.5% restricted 1.5% other 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.61 on average: an expected loss of $11.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt