--- title: "1% Knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% Knife ($1.33) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.28% from 8 items with odds, observed 75.77% over 991 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [1% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 1% Knife A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190?window=all) Price · $1.33 · 2.1 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.28% · EV $1.15 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.77% · 991 openings, odds method Variance · 91.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 286 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 106 openings · below min 7 days · 837 openings · below min 30 days · 991 openings · below min since tracking started · 991 openings · below min -0.5% 93.0% 186.5% **Small sample.** 991 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190?window=24h) | 106 | 3.81% ±181.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190?window=7d) | 837 | 79.17% ±64.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190) | 991 | 75.77% ±59.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/190?window=all) | 991 | 75.77% ±59.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 991 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $313 492 HUNT\_COIN | 13.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $207 326 HUNT\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $170 267 HUNT\_COIN | 7.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $165 260 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $140 221 HUNT\_COIN | 18.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $97.23 153 HUNT\_COIN | 21.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 19.1% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× | | [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) | 99.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 982 | 981.1 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $313 492 HUNT\_COIN 234.4x 2026-11-07 22:34 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [Maltael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Maltael) $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $170 267 HUNT\_COIN 127.3x 2026-11-08 23:41 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $97.23 153 HUNT\_COIN 72.92x 2026-11-08 22:00 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $97.23 153 HUNT\_COIN 72.92x 2026-11-08 05:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=190) [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.1 HUNT\_COIN $0.05 0.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.33 | 86.28% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.1% gold 0.1% covert 0.6% Covert 0.1% knifes 0.3% gray 99.0% best hit $313 (234.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.28 on average: an expected loss of $13.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt