--- title: "Fake Flash case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fake Flash ($0.34) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.47% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.93% over 3,171 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Fake Flash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Fake Flash A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199?window=all) Price · $0.34 · 0.54 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 85.47% · EV $0.29 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.93% · 3,171 openings, odds method Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.79% ±55.65 114 openings 7 days · 88.53% ±11.52 2,660 openings 30 days · 85.93% ±10.55 3,171 openings since tracking started · 85.93% ±10.55 3,171 openings 14.5% 70.8% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199?window=24h) | 114 | 70.79% ±55.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199?window=7d) | 2,660 | 88.53% ±11.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199) | 3,171 | 85.93% ±10.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/199?window=all) | 3,171 | 85.93% ±10.6 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,171 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $13.18 20.76 HUNT\_COIN | 22.5% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $3.32 5.23 HUNT\_COIN | 17.0% | 44 | 47.6 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 88 | 95.1 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Flashbang sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flashbang) | 1 in 20 | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 13.9% | 159 | 158.6 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Flashblack (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flashblack-holo) | 10.0% | $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN | 23.6% | 310 | 317.1 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Call Your Flashes sticker · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-call-your-flashes) | 15.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 501 | 475.6 | 1.05× | | [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 605 | 634.2 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 1.9% | 1,446 | 1427.0 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=199) [Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Sticker | Call Your Flashes sticker · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-call-your-flashes) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Sticker | Flashblack (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flashblack-holo) [Maltael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Maltael) $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.69 1.09 HUNT\_COIN 2.02x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Sticker | Call Your Flashes sticker · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-call-your-flashes) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [P90 | Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.05 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) [Maltael](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Maltael) $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) Hidden $0.34 0.54 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.34 | 85.47% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.5% violet 1.5% milspec 18.0% #4b69ff 5.0% Mythical 10.0% #b0c3d9 20.0% Common 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.47 on average: an expected loss of $14.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt