--- title: "1% chase the knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% chase the knife ($1.41) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.49% from 2 items with odds, observed 48.38% over 369 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20 rendered: 2026-11-12T04:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [1% chase the knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 1% chase the knife A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20?window=all) Price · $1.41 · 2.22 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 88.49% · EV $1.25 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 48.38% · 369 openings, odds method Variance · 76.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 251 openings · below min 30 days · 369 openings · below min since tracking started · 369 openings · below min -0.5% 89.3% 179.0% **Small sample.** 369 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20?window=7d) | 251 | 70.69% ±107.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20) | 369 | 48.38% ±88.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/20?window=all) | 369 | 48.38% ±88.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 384 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $123 194 HUNT\_COIN | 99.0% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 382 | 380.2 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $123 194 HUNT\_COIN 87.60x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $123 194 HUNT\_COIN 87.60x 2026-11-07 03:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=20) [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [Momaaa @bandit](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Momaaa%20%40bandit) $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.41 | 88.49% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% Consumer Grade 99.0% best hit $123 (87.60x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.49 on average: an expected loss of $11.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt