---
title: "Lockdown case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lockdown ($180.88) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 15 items with odds, observed 60.17% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Lockdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Lockdown

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205?window=all)

Price · $180.88 · 285 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $156.46 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 60.17% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 16 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

7.0% 66.8% 126.5%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205?window=7d) | 16 | 67.00% ±59.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205) | 20 | 60.17% ±52.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/205?window=all) | 20 | 60.17% ±52.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,660 4,190 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,179 3,432 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1,716 2,703 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $1,040 1,637 HUNT\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $761 1,199 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $486 766 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $431 678 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $361 569 HUNT\_COIN | 11.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $347 546 HUNT\_COIN | 11.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $153 241 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 12.5% | $102 160 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $95.14 150 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $14.86 23.41 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 22.0% | $0.36 0.56 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=205)

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $95.14 150 HUNT\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $14.86 23.41 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $102 160 HUNT\_COIN 0.56x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $222 350 HUNT\_COIN 1.23x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.56 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $14.86 23.41 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $95.14 150 HUNT\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-minimal-wear) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $361 569 HUNT\_COIN 2.00x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $347 546 HUNT\_COIN 1.92x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $181 285 HUNT\_COIN $95.14 150 HUNT\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 03:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $181 | 86.50% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% gold 0.1% covert 1.1% extraordinary 4.3% legendary 5.0% Classified 5.0% covert knife 5.0% mil spec 37.0% restricted 27.5% Industrial Grade 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt