--- title: "Lore case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lore ($181.55) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 51.42% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Lore A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206?window=all) Price · $181.55 · 286 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $157.04 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.42% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min -0.5% 61.0% 122.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206?window=7d) | 28 | 58.17% ±63.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206) | 32 | 51.42% ±59.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/206?window=all) | 32 | 51.42% ±59.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,555 8,749 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,236 6,672 HUNT\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,622 4,130 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $2,361 3,718 HUNT\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $777 1,224 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $507 798 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $372 586 HUNT\_COIN | 7.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $280 441 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $266 419 HUNT\_COIN | 12.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 10.0% | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 14.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $188 295 HUNT\_COIN | 23.9% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 50.0% | $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 21 | 16.0 | 1.31× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $507 798 HUNT\_COIN 2.79x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=206) [★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $372 586 HUNT\_COIN 2.05x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $507 798 HUNT\_COIN 2.79x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $188 295 HUNT\_COIN 1.03x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $188 295 HUNT\_COIN 1.03x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 20:51 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $182 286 HUNT\_COIN $7.58 11.94 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $182 | 86.50% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 45.5% epic 1.3% Covert 3.3% exotic 50.0% best hit $507 (2.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt