--- title: "Major case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Major ($92.80) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 102.61% over 90 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Major](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Major A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207?window=all) Price · $92.80 · 146 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $80.27 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.61% · 90 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 82 openings · below min 30 days · 90 openings · below min since tracking started · 90 openings · below min 59.5% 108.7% 158.0% **Small sample.** 90 openings and 9.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207?window=7d) | 82 | 112.54% ±44.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207) | 90 | 102.61% ±42.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/207?window=all) | 90 | 102.61% ±42.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $610 960 HUNT\_COIN | 38.0% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.56× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $569 896 HUNT\_COIN | 35.4% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $410 645 HUNT\_COIN | 25.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× | | [Sticker \| Dust FA (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dust-fa-foil) | 15.0% | $4.73 7.45 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Inferno Diorama (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-inferno-diorama-foil) | 15.0% | $0.48 0.76 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Pain Train (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-train-holo) | 15.0% | $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Overpass Diorama (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-overpass-diorama-foil) | 15.0% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 17 | 13.5 | 1.26× | | [Sticker \| TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-10 10:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-10 10:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-07 18:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-07 18:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-06 18:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-06 12:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $610 960 HUNT\_COIN 6.57x 2026-11-06 00:35 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $569 896 HUNT\_COIN 6.13x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $569 896 HUNT\_COIN 6.13x 2026-11-10 10:40 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $569 896 HUNT\_COIN 6.13x 2026-11-08 20:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=207) [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [Sticker | Dust FA (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dust-fa-foil) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $4.73 7.45 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [Sticker | Pain Train (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-train-holo) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $0.27 0.43 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [Sticker | Dust FA (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dust-fa-foil) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $4.73 7.45 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC [Sticker | Dust FA (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dust-fa-foil) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $4.73 7.45 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $569 896 HUNT\_COIN 6.13x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $569 896 HUNT\_COIN 6.13x 2026-11-10 10:40 UTC [Sticker | Dust FA (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dust-fa-foil) Hidden $92.80 146 HUNT\_COIN $4.73 7.45 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $92.80 | 86.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 5.0% covert 5.0% Classified 5.0% Legendary 45.0% Mythical 15.0% high 25.0% best hit $610 (6.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt