--- title: "Lurker case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lurker ($5.92) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.44% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.06% over 477 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Lurker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Lurker A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208?window=all) Price · $5.92 · 9.32 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.44% · EV $5.12 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.06% · 477 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 91.33% ±7.63 327 openings 30 days · 89.06% ±6.32 477 openings since tracking started · 89.06% ±6.32 477 openings 43.0% 100.0% 157.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208?window=24h) | 6 | 100.14% ±56.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208?window=7d) | 327 | 91.33% ±7.63 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208) | 477 | 89.06% ±6.32 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/208?window=all) | 477 | 89.06% ±6.32 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 477 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.51 19.71 HUNT\_COIN | 12.2% | 13 | 23.9 | 0.55× | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.32 17.83 HUNT\_COIN | 11.1% | 24 | 23.9 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $10.43 16.42 HUNT\_COIN | 15.3% | 42 | 35.8 | 1.17× | | [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN | 12.2% | 37 | 35.8 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $7.47 11.77 HUNT\_COIN | 18.3% | 75 | 59.6 | 1.26× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 12.5% | $6.97 10.97 HUNT\_COIN | 17.0% | 62 | 59.6 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 12.5% | $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 61 | 59.6 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Sneaky Beaky Like sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sneaky-beaky-like) | 37.5% | $0.31 0.49 HUNT\_COIN | 2.3% | 163 | 178.9 | 0.91× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=208) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $10.43 16.42 HUNT\_COIN 1.76x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [Sticker | Sneaky Beaky Like sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sneaky-beaky-like) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $0.31 0.49 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN 0.80x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN 0.80x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $6.97 10.97 HUNT\_COIN 1.18x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN 1.41x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN 0.80x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $8.33 13.12 HUNT\_COIN 1.41x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [Sticker | Sneaky Beaky Like sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sneaky-beaky-like) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $0.31 0.49 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $5.92 9.32 HUNT\_COIN $10.43 16.42 HUNT\_COIN 1.76x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.92 | 86.44% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 17.5% Legendary 17.5% Classified 7.5% pink 7.5% covert 12.5% Rare 37.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.44 on average: an expected loss of $13.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt