--- title: "Low HP Legend case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Low HP Legend ($4.83) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.45% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.15% over 549 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Low HP Legend](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Low HP Legend A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209?window=all) Price · $4.83 · 7.61 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.45% · EV $4.18 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.15% · 549 openings, odds method Variance · 102.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 286 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 360 openings · below min 30 days · 549 openings · below min since tracking started · 549 openings · below min -0.5% 203.5% 407.5% **Small sample.** 549 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209?window=24h) | 24 | 2.37% ±404.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209?window=7d) | 360 | 112.49% ±104.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209) | 549 | 94.15% ±84.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/209?window=all) | 549 | 94.15% ±84.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 549 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $857 1,351 HUNT\_COIN | 10.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $601 947 HUNT\_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $519 818 HUNT\_COIN | 18.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $444 700 HUNT\_COIN | 16.0% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 23.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) | 99.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN | 2.7% | 542 | 543.5 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $519 818 HUNT\_COIN 107.5x 2026-11-04 10:55 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $444 700 HUNT\_COIN 91.98x 2026-11-08 23:03 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $444 700 HUNT\_COIN 91.98x 2026-11-07 21:37 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [Apumatic](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Apumatic) $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $444 700 HUNT\_COIN 91.98x 2026-11-05 04:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=209) [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Hot Rod Heat sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-rod-heat) Hidden $4.83 7.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.11 0.18 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.83 | 86.45% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% covert 0.3% mil spec 0.7% #4b69ff 99.0% best hit $519 (107.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.45 on average: an expected loss of $13.55 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt