---
title: "Mirage case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mirage ($154.57) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 72.54% over 28 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Mirage

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210?window=all)

Price · $154.57 · 243 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $133.70 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.54% · 28 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 28 openings · below min

since tracking started · 28 openings · below min

-0.5% 151.3% 303.0%

**Small sample.** 28 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210?window=7d) | 12 | 169.25% ±132.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210) | 28 | 72.54% ±87.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/210?window=all) | 28 | 72.54% ±87.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN | 16.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1,667 2,625 HUNT\_COIN | 31.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $526 829 HUNT\_COIN | 19.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 11.5% | $377 594 HUNT\_COIN | 32.4% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| [P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN 14.47x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $526 829 HUNT\_COIN 3.41x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=210)

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN 14.47x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-well-worn) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-well-worn) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $526 829 HUNT\_COIN 3.41x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Karl Ess](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Karl%20Ess) $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:45 UTC

[P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:23 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $155 243 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $155 | 86.50% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.5% #eb4b4b 5.0% classified 11.5% consumer 80.0% best hit $2,236 (14.47x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt