---
title: "Ninja Defuse case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ninja Defuse ($11.20) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.48% from 12 items with odds, observed 79.30% over 219 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Ninja Defuse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Ninja Defuse

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211?window=all)

Price · $11.20 · 17.64 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.48% · EV $9.69 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.30% · 219 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 17 openings · below min

7 days · 82.24% ±24.65 191 openings

30 days · 79.30% ±23.02 219 openings

since tracking started · 79.30% ±23.02 219 openings

17.5% 100.8% 184.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211?window=24h) | 17 | 100.56% ±82.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211?window=7d) | 191 | 82.24% ±24.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211) | 219 | 79.30% ±23.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/211?window=all) | 219 | 79.30% ±23.0 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 219 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $96.73 152 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $76.53 121 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $68.05 107 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $56.67 89.26 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $44.76 70.49 HUNT\_COIN | 11.6% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.19 61.73 HUNT\_COIN | 20.2% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $27.43 43.21 HUNT\_COIN | 19.8% | 11 | 15.3 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.40 2.21 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 29 | 21.9 | 1.32× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.37 2.15 HUNT\_COIN | 2.1% | 30 | 32.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $1.11 1.75 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 25 | 32.9 | 0.76× |
| [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 51 | 43.8 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 45 | 43.8 | 1.03× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=211)

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $1.40 2.21 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC

[Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-well-worn) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $27.43 43.21 HUNT\_COIN 2.45x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC

[AUG | Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $68.05 107 HUNT\_COIN 6.08x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $39.19 61.73 HUNT\_COIN 3.50x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

[Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-forest-night-well-worn) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-well-worn) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $44.76 70.49 HUNT\_COIN 4.00x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $11.20 17.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.36 0.57 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.20 | 86.48% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 1.0% covert 1.3% violet 23.5% red 1.8% mil spec 22.5% restricted 5.0% blue 10.0% Uncommon 15.0% Consumer Grade 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.48 on average: an expected loss of $13.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt