--- title: "Needle case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Needle ($116.24) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 137.03% over 21 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Needle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Needle A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212?window=all) Price · $116.24 · 183 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $100.55 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 137.03% · 21 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 21 openings · below min 30 days · 21 openings · below min since tracking started · 21 openings · below min 66.5% 137.0% 207.5% **Small sample.** 21 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212?window=7d) | 21 | 137.03% ±69.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212) | 21 | 137.03% ±69.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/212?window=all) | 21 | 137.03% ±69.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $849 1,338 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $678 1,067 HUNT\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $583 919 HUNT\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $581 915 HUNT\_COIN | 14.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $546 860 HUNT\_COIN | 27.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.86× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $353 555 HUNT\_COIN | 19.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $257 405 HUNT\_COIN | 25.6% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× | | [Sticker \| Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) | 75.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN | 0.2% | 13 | 15.8 | 0.83× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $581 915 HUNT\_COIN 5.00x 2026-11-07 03:05 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $546 860 HUNT\_COIN 4.70x 2026-11-07 03:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [PumpFun](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PumpFun) $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $546 860 HUNT\_COIN 4.70x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $546 860 HUNT\_COIN 4.70x 2026-11-05 11:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=212) [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:07 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:07 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:07 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $546 860 HUNT\_COIN 4.70x 2026-11-07 03:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $257 405 HUNT\_COIN 2.21x 2026-11-07 03:06 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $257 405 HUNT\_COIN 2.21x 2026-11-07 03:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $353 555 HUNT\_COIN 3.03x 2026-11-07 03:05 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) [fine shi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/fine%20shi) $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:05 UTC [Sticker | Backstab sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-backstab) Hidden $116 183 HUNT\_COIN $0.22 0.35 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 03:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $116 | 86.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 0.5% covert 6.5% Covert 2.5% covert knife 15.5% Rare 75.0% best hit $581 (5.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt