--- title: "Pain case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pain ($307.26) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 64.95% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Pain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Pain A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221?window=all) Price · $307.26 · 484 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $265.78 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.95% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 86.3% 173.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221?window=7d) | 6 | 64.95% ±107.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221) | 6 | 64.95% ±107.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/221?window=all) | 6 | 64.95% ±107.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $2,736 4,309 HUNT\_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT\_COIN | 20.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $368 580 HUNT\_COIN | 11.1% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 13.0% | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 13.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 15.0% | $243 383 HUNT\_COIN | 13.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 15.0% | $54.44 85.75 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 35.0% | $19.37 30.51 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=221) [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $307 484 HUNT\_COIN $368 580 HUNT\_COIN 1.20x 2026-11-09 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) [dwiauhdas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/dwiauhdas) $307 484 HUNT\_COIN $19.37 30.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $307 484 HUNT\_COIN $19.37 30.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $307 484 HUNT\_COIN $368 580 HUNT\_COIN 1.20x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $307 484 HUNT\_COIN $54.44 85.75 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $307 484 HUNT\_COIN $368 580 HUNT\_COIN 1.20x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $307 | 86.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 37.0% extraordinary 13.0% classified 15.0% Classified 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt