--- title: "PayDay case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "PayDay ($43.31) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 54.26% over 358 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [PayDay](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · PayDay A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223?window=all) Price · $43.31 · 68.22 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $37.47 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.26% · 358 openings, odds method Variance · 18.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 201 openings · below min 30 days · 54.26% ±44.56 358 openings since tracking started · 54.26% ±44.56 358 openings -0.5% 184.0% 368.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223?window=24h) | 20 | 179.50% ±188.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223?window=7d) | 201 | 60.61% ±59.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223) | 358 | 54.26% ±44.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/223?window=all) | 358 | 54.26% ±44.6 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 358 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN | 12.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $971 1,529 HUNT\_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $625 984 HUNT\_COIN | 25.0% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $430 678 HUNT\_COIN | 23.0% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× | | [Sticker \| CT in Banana sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ct-in-banana) | 30.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 125 | 107.4 | 1.16× | | [Sticker \| Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) | 30.0% | $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 96 | 107.4 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) | 35.0% | $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 125 | 125.3 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN 35.59x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN 35.59x 2026-11-03 14:46 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $625 984 HUNT\_COIN 14.43x 2026-11-07 12:44 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $625 984 HUNT\_COIN 14.43x 2026-11-06 19:57 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $625 984 HUNT\_COIN 14.43x 2026-11-05 23:38 UTC [★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $625 984 HUNT\_COIN 14.43x 2026-11-03 22:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=223) [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN 35.59x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:58 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [Sticker | CT in Banana sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ct-in-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [Sticker | CT in Banana sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ct-in-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:46 UTC [Sticker | Fast Banana sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fast-banana) Hidden $43.31 68.22 HUNT\_COIN $0.55 0.87 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.31 | 86.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.7% restricted 0.3% covert knife 1.0% rare 2.0% Rare 30.0% #4b69ff 30.0% high 35.0% best hit $1,542 (35.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt