--- title: "Statty case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Statty ($262.83) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 16 items with odds, observed 70.87% over 40 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Statty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Statty A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229?window=all) Price · $262.83 · 414 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $227.34 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.87% · 40 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 40 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min 30.0% 71.0% 112.0% **Small sample.** 40 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229?window=7d) | 40 | 70.87% ±40.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229) | 40 | 70.87% ±40.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/229?window=all) | 40 | 70.87% ±40.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT\_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1,852 2,917 HUNT\_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $644 1,015 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $576 908 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $540 850 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $514 809 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $443 698 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $422 664 HUNT\_COIN | 7.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $362 571 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.50× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 15.0% | $39.93 62.89 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 15.0% | $39.58 62.34 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 15.0% | $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.50× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 15.0% | $36.88 58.08 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $644 1,015 HUNT\_COIN 2.45x 2026-11-07 19:07 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [Karl Ess](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Karl%20Ess) $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $644 1,015 HUNT\_COIN 2.45x 2026-11-07 19:06 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $540 850 HUNT\_COIN 2.05x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $540 850 HUNT\_COIN 2.05x 2026-11-07 19:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Karl Ess](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Karl%20Ess) $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $514 809 HUNT\_COIN 1.96x 2026-11-07 19:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=229) [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $36.88 58.08 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $422 664 HUNT\_COIN 1.60x 2026-11-08 20:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $39.93 62.89 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $39.58 62.34 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $362 571 HUNT\_COIN 1.38x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $540 850 HUNT\_COIN 2.05x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) [Karl Ess](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Karl%20Ess) $263 414 HUNT\_COIN $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $263 | 86.50% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% covert 43.0% classified 5.0% Ancient 6.0% Classified 30.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit $644 (2.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt