--- title: "M4 Dreamer case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M4 Dreamer ($6.93) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.44% from 11 items with odds, observed 121.89% over 29 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [M4 Dreamer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · M4 Dreamer A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23?window=all) Price · $6.93 · 10.92 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.44% · EV $6.06 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 121.89% · 29 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 29 openings · below min since tracking started · 29 openings · below min 34.0% 124.7% 215.5% **Small sample.** 29 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23?window=7d) | 28 | 126.20% ±88.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23) | 29 | 121.89% ±87.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/23?window=all) | 29 | 121.89% ±87.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $76.74 121 HUNT\_COIN | 19.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $70.55 111 HUNT\_COIN | 17.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $47.23 74.38 HUNT\_COIN | 11.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $43.05 67.81 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $36.88 58.08 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $30.15 47.48 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $19.35 30.47 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $13.18 20.76 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $8.06 12.7 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 85.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 22 | 24.6 | 0.89× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=23) [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 10:19 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $36.88 58.08 HUNT\_COIN 5.32x 2026-11-09 10:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 10:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 10:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) [Terracidre](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Terracidre) $6.93 10.92 HUNT\_COIN $19.35 30.47 HUNT\_COIN 2.79x 2026-11-06 04:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.93 | 87.44% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% Classified 1.5% classified 1.5% mil spec 1.5% pink 1.5% restricted 3.0% Restricted 1.5% Industrial Grade 85.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.44 on average: an expected loss of $12.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt