--- title: "Stayin Alive case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stayin Alive ($4.70) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.40% from 8 items with odds, observed 97.63% over 279 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Stayin Alive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Stayin Alive A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230?window=all) Price · $4.70 · 7.41 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.40% · EV $4.07 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.63% · 279 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 93.41% ±16.30 239 openings 30 days · 97.63% ±15.09 279 openings since tracking started · 97.63% ±15.09 279 openings 76.5% 95.0% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230?window=7d) | 239 | 93.41% ±16.3 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230) | 279 | 97.63% ±15.1 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/230?window=all) | 279 | 97.63% ±15.1 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 279 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $39.86 62.78 HUNT\_COIN | 14.7% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.21 27.11 HUNT\_COIN | 21.2% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× | | [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $8.46 13.33 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 21 | 20.9 | 1.00× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $6.67 10.51 HUNT\_COIN | 13.1% | 26 | 22.3 | 1.16× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $4.50 7.09 HUNT\_COIN | 14.4% | 53 | 36.3 | 1.46× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $4.30 6.78 HUNT\_COIN | 15.9% | 40 | 41.9 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Zombie Lover sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zombie-lover) | 15.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 38 | 41.9 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) | 35.0% | $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 83 | 97.6 | 0.85× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=230) [Sticker | Zombie Lover sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zombie-lover) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-10 07:54 UTC [Sticker | Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 07:54 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $4.30 6.78 HUNT\_COIN 0.91x 2026-11-10 07:54 UTC [Sticker | Zombie Lover sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zombie-lover) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-10 07:54 UTC [Sticker | Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC [Sticker | Zombie Lover sticker · Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zombie-lover) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.83 1.31 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC [Sticker | Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC [Sticker | Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $6.67 10.51 HUNT\_COIN 1.42x 2026-11-10 07:52 UTC [Sticker | Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) Hidden $4.70 7.41 HUNT\_COIN $0.23 0.37 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 07:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.70 | 86.40% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.5% Legendary 5.0% #8847ff 7.5% Industrial 8.0% Mil Spec Grade 13.0% Classified 15.0% Sticker 15.0% high 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.40 on average: an expected loss of $13.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt