--- title: "Unwinnable case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Unwinnable ($2.97) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.35% from 17 items with odds, observed 77.55% over 971 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Unwinnable](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Unwinnable A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236?window=all) Price · $2.97 · 4.67 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.35% · EV $2.56 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.55% · 971 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65 openings · below min 7 days · 77.29% ±14.92 754 openings 30 days · 77.55% ±13.15 971 openings since tracking started · 77.55% ±13.15 971 openings 61.5% 116.0% 170.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236?window=24h) | 65 | 118.91% ±50.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236?window=7d) | 754 | 77.29% ±14.9 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236) | 971 | 77.55% ±13.1 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/236?window=all) | 971 | 77.55% ±13.1 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 971 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife) | 1 in 10,000 | $139 219 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $112 176 HUNT\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $86.53 136 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $35.35 55.68 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $32.43 51.08 HUNT\_COIN | 3.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $27.78 43.76 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.31× | | [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $22.36 35.22 HUNT\_COIN | 8.7% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $17.99 28.34 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 14 | 9.7 | 1.44× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.82 24.91 HUNT\_COIN | 12.4% | 17 | 19.4 | 0.88× | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $13.47 21.22 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 16 | 19.4 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $11.82 18.61 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 26 | 29.1 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.05 12.68 HUNT\_COIN | 15.7% | 57 | 48.6 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.88 10.83 HUNT\_COIN | 13.4% | 36 | 48.6 | 0.74× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN | 1.9% | 150 | 145.7 | 1.03× | | [Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN | 0.9% | 131 | 145.7 | 0.90× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 255 | 242.8 | 1.05× | | [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN | 0.4% | 254 | 242.8 | 1.05× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=236) [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.32 0.51 HUNT\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.15 0.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.04 0.07 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $2.97 4.67 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.97 | 86.35% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.1% blue 0.6% industrial 43.0% restricted 1.0% mil spec 2.0% Restricted 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% milspec 5.0% #5e98d9 15.0% uncommon 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.35 on average: an expected loss of $13.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt