--- title: "Thundercracker case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Thundercracker ($395.78) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 6.39% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Thundercracker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Thundercracker A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241?window=all) Price · $395.78 · 623 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $342.35 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.39% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 72.8% 146.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241?window=7d) | 6 | 6.39% ±138.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241) | 6 | 6.39% ±138.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/241?window=all) | 6 | 6.39% ±138.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3,471 5,466 HUNT\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT\_COIN | 9.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $2,299 3,621 HUNT\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $1,929 3,038 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,778 2,800 HUNT\_COIN | 13.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,368 2,154 HUNT\_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN | 19.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $61.68 97.14 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 15.0% | $35.97 56.66 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $27.57 43.43 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $17.40 27.41 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=241) [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $396 623 HUNT\_COIN $35.97 56.66 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $396 623 HUNT\_COIN $17.40 27.41 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) Hidden $396 623 HUNT\_COIN $27.57 43.43 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $396 623 HUNT\_COIN $35.97 56.66 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $396 623 HUNT\_COIN $17.40 27.41 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $396 623 HUNT\_COIN $17.40 27.41 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $396 | 86.50% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 8.5% Covert 1.3% gold 1.5% covert knife 1.8% covert 7.0% restricted 25.0% Ancient 15.0% classified 20.0% blue 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt