--- title: "Short Cuts case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Short Cuts ($6.19) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.45% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.96% over 753 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Short Cuts](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Short Cuts A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243?window=all) Price · $6.19 · 9.75 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.45% · EV $5.35 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.96% · 753 openings, odds method Variance · 14.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 100.63% ±31.06 556 openings 30 days · 85.96% ±26.69 753 openings since tracking started · 85.96% ±26.69 753 openings 58.5% 147.5% 236.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243?window=24h) | 76 | 151.68% ±84.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243?window=7d) | 556 | 100.63% ±31.1 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243) | 753 | 85.96% ±26.7 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/243?window=all) | 753 | 85.96% ±26.7 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 753 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $243 383 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $191 301 HUNT\_COIN | 10.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $142 224 HUNT\_COIN | 26.6% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 19.5% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 20.5% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Small Arms (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms-holo) | 30.0% | $1.14 1.8 HUNT\_COIN | 6.4% | 229 | 225.9 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 30.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 4.6% | 219 | 225.9 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) | 35.0% | $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN | 2.7% | 267 | 263.6 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=243) [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms-holo) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $1.14 1.8 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms-holo) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $1.14 1.8 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms-holo) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $1.14 1.8 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms-holo) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $1.14 1.8 HUNT\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $6.19 9.75 HUNT\_COIN $0.41 0.64 HUNT\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.19 | 86.45% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.2% Covert 0.3% covert 4.5% Mythical 30.0% High Grade 30.0% #4B69FF 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.45 on average: an expected loss of $13.55 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt