--- title: "Scar Pattern case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Scar Pattern ($155.83) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 9 items with odds, observed 72.77% over 48 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Scar Pattern](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Scar Pattern A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245?window=all) Price · $155.83 · 245 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $134.80 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.77% · 48 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min 24.5% 73.0% 121.5% **Small sample.** 48 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245?window=7d) | 48 | 72.77% ±47.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245) | 48 | 72.77% ±47.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/245?window=all) | 48 | 72.77% ±47.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,342 2,114 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $1,069 1,684 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN | 9.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $715 1,127 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $639 1,006 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $505 795 HUNT\_COIN | 18.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $438 690 HUNT\_COIN | 22.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 40.0% | $22.46 35.38 HUNT\_COIN | 6.7% | 17 | 19.2 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $6.36 10.02 HUNT\_COIN | 1.9% | 22 | 19.2 | 1.15× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN 5.17x 2026-11-10 10:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $715 1,127 HUNT\_COIN 4.59x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $639 1,006 HUNT\_COIN 4.10x 2026-11-07 22:28 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $505 795 HUNT\_COIN 3.24x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $505 795 HUNT\_COIN 3.24x 2026-11-07 22:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=245) [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $6.36 10.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $6.36 10.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $22.46 35.38 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $6.36 10.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $22.46 35.38 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $6.36 10.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $22.46 35.38 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $22.46 35.38 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $6.36 10.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $156 245 HUNT\_COIN $505 795 HUNT\_COIN 3.24x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $156 | 86.50% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Immortal 1.0% covert 6.3% gold 1.5% covert knife 1.8% #ffd700 2.5% classified 7.0% restricted 80.0% best hit $806 (5.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt