---
title: "Rusty Loot case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rusty Loot ($28.53) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.49% from 14 items with odds, observed 74.98% over 196 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Rusty Loot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Rusty Loot

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246?window=all)

Price · $28.53 · 44.94 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.49% · EV $24.68 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.98% · 196 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 108.27% ±45.31 110 openings

30 days · 74.98% ±33.94 196 openings

since tracking started · 74.98% ±33.94 196 openings

40.5% 136.8% 233.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246?window=24h) | 28 | 142.33% ±89.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246?window=7d) | 110 | 108.27% ±45.3 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246) | 196 | 74.98% ±33.9 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/246?window=all) | 196 | 74.98% ±33.9 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $972 1,531 HUNT\_COIN | 3.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $645 1,016 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $424 668 HUNT\_COIN | 8.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $301 474 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $226 357 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.53× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $192 303 HUNT\_COIN | 9.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $113 179 HUNT\_COIN | 10.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $89.47 141 HUNT\_COIN | 9.1% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $88.90 140 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.19× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $38.90 61.26 HUNT\_COIN | 5.5% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) | 10.3% | $34.15 53.79 HUNT\_COIN | 14.2% | 17 | 20.1 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) | 25.0% | $2.46 3.88 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 50 | 49.0 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN | 1.4% | 52 | 49.0 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 58 | 49.0 | 1.18× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $972 1,531 HUNT\_COIN 34.07x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=246)

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $972 1,531 HUNT\_COIN 34.07x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $89.47 141 HUNT\_COIN 3.14x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $2.46 3.88 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $0.58 0.92 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $2.46 3.88 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $2.46 3.88 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $2.46 3.88 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $2.46 3.88 HUNT\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

[Souvenir Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.53 44.94 HUNT\_COIN $1.37 2.16 HUNT\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.53 | 86.49% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.1% covert knife 1.5% Immortal 1.0% covert 6.5% gold 2.2% mil spec 3.5% Uncommon 10.3% Industrial Grade 25.0% industrial 25.0% milspec 25.0% best hit $972 (34.07x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.49 on average: an expected loss of $13.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt