--- title: "That Simple case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "That Simple ($20.44) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.49% from 8 items with odds, observed 74.76% over 950 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [That Simple](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · That Simple A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249?window=all) Price · $20.44 · 32.2 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.49% · EV $17.68 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.76% · 950 openings, odds method Variance · 118.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100 openings · below min 7 days · 748 openings · below min 30 days · 950 openings · below min since tracking started · 950 openings · below min -0.5% 109.8% 220.0% **Small sample.** 950 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249?window=24h) | 100 | 6.12% ±213.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249?window=7d) | 748 | 81.22% ±77.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249) | 950 | 74.76% ±69.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/249?window=all) | 950 | 74.76% ±69.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 950 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,292 11,484 HUNT\_COIN | 20.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,305 5,206 HUNT\_COIN | 18.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $2,028 3,194 HUNT\_COIN | 17.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN | 16.4% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $903 1,422 HUNT\_COIN | 20.4% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [Sticker \| Hello AWP (Gold) sticker · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-awp-gold) | 19.0% | $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN | 3.4% | 179 | 180.5 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Awp Country sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-awp-country) | 40.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 362 | 380.0 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| BukAWP sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bukawp) | 40.0% | $0.64 1.01 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 401 | 380.0 | 1.06× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $3,305 5,206 HUNT\_COIN 161.7x 2026-11-09 10:50 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $3,305 5,206 HUNT\_COIN 161.7x 2026-11-06 13:05 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [Sparven](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Sparven) $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $2,028 3,194 HUNT\_COIN 99.18x 2026-11-07 21:37 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN 47.14x 2026-11-09 16:40 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN 47.14x 2026-11-09 11:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN 47.14x 2026-11-07 21:56 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $964 1,518 HUNT\_COIN 47.14x 2026-11-04 05:28 UTC [AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $903 1,422 HUNT\_COIN 44.16x 2026-11-04 00:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=249) [Sticker | Awp Country sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-awp-country) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | BukAWP sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bukawp) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.64 1.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Awp Country sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-awp-country) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Awp Country sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-awp-country) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | BukAWP sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bukawp) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.64 1.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Hello AWP (Gold) sticker · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-awp-gold) [Hulk](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hulk) $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Awp Country sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-awp-country) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [Sticker | BukAWP sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bukawp) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.64 1.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [Sticker | BukAWP sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bukawp) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $0.64 1.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [Sticker | Hello AWP (Gold) sticker · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-awp-gold) Hidden $20.44 32.2 HUNT\_COIN $3.19 5.03 HUNT\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.44 | 86.49% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% restricted 19.0% High Grade 40.0% #4b69ff 40.0% best hit $3,305 (161.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.49 on average: an expected loss of $13.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt