--- title: "20% Never Lose case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "20% Never Lose ($1.19) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.23% from 6 items with odds, observed 104.82% over 136 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25 rendered: 2026-11-12T02:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [20% Never Lose](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 20% Never Lose A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25?window=all) Price · $1.19 · 1.87 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.23% · EV $1.04 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.82% · 136 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 98.26% ±36.42 122 openings 30 days · 104.82% ±34.50 136 openings since tracking started · 104.82% ±34.50 136 openings 61.0% 100.5% 140.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25?window=7d) | 122 | 98.26% ±36.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25) | 136 | 104.82% ±34.5 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/25?window=all) | 136 | 104.82% ±34.5 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 136 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $15.35 24.18 HUNT\_COIN | 14.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $6.85 10.79 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.40 8.51 HUNT\_COIN | 26.1% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.18 8.16 HUNT\_COIN | 25.0% | 11 | 6.8 | 1.62× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $4.79 7.55 HUNT\_COIN | 23.1% | 14 | 6.8 | 2.06× | | [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) | 82.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 105 | 112.2 | 0.94× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=25) [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) [wavxx123](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/wavxx123) $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:10 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 1.87 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.19 | 87.23% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 7.5% #4b69ff 5.0% red 5.0% Consumer Grade 82.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.23 on average: an expected loss of $12.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt