--- title: "GUARANTEED 10% KNIFE case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GUARANTEED 10% KNIFE ($9.72) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 15 items with odds, observed 95.21% over 90 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [GUARANTEED 10% KNIFE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · GUARANTEED 10% KNIFE A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26?window=all) Price · $9.72 · 15.31 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $8.49 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.21% · 90 openings, odds method Variance · 11.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 90 openings · below min 30 days · 90 openings · below min since tracking started · 90 openings · below min -0.5% 138.8% 278.0% **Small sample.** 90 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26?window=24h) | 6 | 8.36% ±269.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26?window=7d) | 90 | 95.21% ±69.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26) | 90 | 95.21% ±69.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/26?window=all) | 90 | 95.21% ±69.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $651 1,025 HUNT\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $525 827 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $437 689 HUNT\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $123 193 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $106 168 HUNT\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $82.36 130 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $71.61 113 HUNT\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT\_COIN | 14.7% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.20× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 16.2% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.22× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 90.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 8.6% | 77 | 81.0 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=26) [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Leva\_alt2](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Leva_alt2) $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN 5.65x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN 5.65x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $9.72 15.31 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 17:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.72 | 87.38% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.6% covert knife 3.2% Knives 0.3% High Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt