--- title: "Freaky case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Freaky ($1,275.38) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 51.48% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Freaky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Freaky A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269?window=all) Price · $1,275.38 · 2,009 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $1,103.20 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.48% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 72.5% 145.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269?window=7d) | 6 | 51.48% ±93.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269) | 6 | 51.48% ±93.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/269?window=all) | 6 | 51.48% ±93.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3,888 6,124 HUNT\_COIN | 17.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3,333 5,250 HUNT\_COIN | 30.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 12.5% | $3,333 5,250 HUNT\_COIN | 37.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 12.5% | $1,219 1,921 HUNT\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $2.69 4.24 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Nova \| Wild Six (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-battle-scarred) | 17.5% | $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.90× | | [MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-battle-scarred) | 17.5% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $3,888 6,124 HUNT\_COIN 3.05x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=269) [Nova | Wild Six (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Wildwood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $0.25 0.4 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $2.69 4.24 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [DameTime](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DameTime) $1,275 2,009 HUNT\_COIN $3,888 6,124 HUNT\_COIN 3.05x 2026-11-05 01:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,275 | 86.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.5% classified 35.0% #d32ce6 12.5% Mythical 17.5% industrial 17.5% best hit $3,888 (3.05x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt