---
title: "Thats Wild case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Thats Wild ($2,354.64) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 4 items with odds, observed 59.85% over 12 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Thats Wild](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277)

# [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Thats Wild

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277?window=all)

Price · $2,354.64 · 3,709 HUNT\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $2,036.76 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 59.85% · 12 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 12 openings · below min

since tracking started · 12 openings · below min

-0.5% 71.0% 142.5%

**Small sample.** 12 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277?window=7d) | 12 | 59.85% ±82.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277) | 12 | 59.85% ±82.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/277?window=all) | 12 | 59.85% ±82.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 12.5% | $10.4K 16,406 HUNT\_COIN | 63.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 22.5% | $3,194 5,031 HUNT\_COIN | 35.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 32.5% | $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN | 0.8% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 32.5% | $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.79× |

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $10.4K 16,406 HUNT\_COIN 4.42x 2026-11-06 18:30 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $3,194 5,031 HUNT\_COIN 1.36x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $3,194 5,031 HUNT\_COIN 1.36x 2026-11-06 18:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=277)

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $3,194 5,031 HUNT\_COIN 1.36x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) [Gremlin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Gremlin) $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:37 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $3,194 5,031 HUNT\_COIN 1.36x 2026-11-06 18:30 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 18:30 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $47.75 75.21 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-06 18:30 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,355 3,709 HUNT\_COIN $1.35 2.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2,355 | 86.50% | 4 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 45.0% classified 22.5% pink 32.5% best hit $10.4K (4.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt