--- title: "Vanilla case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vanilla ($940.10) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.98% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Vanilla](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Vanilla A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284?window=all) Price · $940.10 · 1,481 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $813.19 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.98% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 42.0% 93.0% 144.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284?window=7d) | 12 | 92.98% ±50.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284) | 12 | 92.98% ±50.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/284?window=all) | 12 | 92.98% ±50.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 13 | $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN | 25.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 10.0% | $2,110 3,324 HUNT\_COIN | 26.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) | 10.0% | $1,534 2,417 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) | 10.0% | $687 1,083 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) | 12.5% | $566 891 HUNT\_COIN | 8.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet) | 12.5% | $463 729 HUNT\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife) | 12.5% | $385 606 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 25.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 2.88x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $2,110 3,324 HUNT\_COIN 2.24x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) [Jiricek](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Jiricek) $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $2,110 3,324 HUNT\_COIN 2.24x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $1,534 2,417 HUNT\_COIN 1.63x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $687 1,083 HUNT\_COIN 0.73x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $566 891 HUNT\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=284) [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $687 1,083 HUNT\_COIN 0.73x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $2,708 4,265 HUNT\_COIN 2.88x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Flip Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $385 606 HUNT\_COIN 0.41x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $2,110 3,324 HUNT\_COIN 2.24x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Gremlin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Gremlin) $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $566 891 HUNT\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $1,534 2,417 HUNT\_COIN 1.63x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $940 1,481 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $940 | 86.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 75.0% High Grade 25.0% best hit $2,708 (2.88x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt