--- title: "RED DEMON case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "RED DEMON ($42.82) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 10 items with odds, observed 57.30% over 10 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297 rendered: 2026-11-12T17:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [RED DEMON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · RED DEMON A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297?window=all) Price · $42.82 · 67.44 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $37.42 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 57.30% · 10 openings, sample method Variance · 51.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 10 openings · below min since tracking started · 10 openings · below min -0.5% 83.0% 166.5% **Small sample.** 10 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297?window=7d) | 4 | 1.90% ±0.00 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297) | 10 | 57.30% ±108.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/297?window=all) | 10 | 57.30% ±108.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,153 11,265 HUNT\_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 400 | $1,040 1,638 HUNT\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $362 571 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $278 437 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $238 375 HUNT\_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $130 205 HUNT\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014 (Red) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-cologne-2014-red) | 1 in 33 | $106 168 HUNT\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) | 90.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 2.0% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 12 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=297) [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $42.82 67.44 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:14 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $42.82 67.44 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:14 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $42.82 67.44 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:14 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $42.82 67.44 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 Nov, 14:06 UTC | $42.82 | 87.38% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.5% extraordinary 2.5% classified 4.0% #d32ce6 3.0% high 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt