--- title: "10% ahmed case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% ahmed ($22.23) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.36% from 7 items with odds, observed 111.57% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% ahmed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% ahmed A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299?window=all) Price · $22.23 · 35.02 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.36% · EV $19.42 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 111.57% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 156.0% 312.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299?window=7d) | 14 | 113.30% ±198.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299) | 18 | 111.57% ±175.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/299?window=all) | 18 | 111.57% ±175.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,179 3,432 HUNT\_COIN | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 31.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower) | 1 in 50 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 21.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $123 193 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $87.30 137 HUNT\_COIN | 9.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 45.0% | $2.18 3.44 HUNT\_COIN | 5.1% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) | 45.0% | $1.40 2.21 HUNT\_COIN | 3.3% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=299) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $2.18 3.44 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $2.18 3.44 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $1.40 2.21 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $2.18 3.44 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $1.40 2.21 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $123 193 HUNT\_COIN 5.52x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $87.30 137 HUNT\_COIN 3.93x 2026-11-08 03:08 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $2.18 3.44 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-08 03:08 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $2.18 3.44 HUNT\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-08 03:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) [Terracidre](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Terracidre) $22.23 35.02 HUNT\_COIN $123 193 HUNT\_COIN 5.52x 2026-11-08 03:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.23 | 87.36% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.1% Restricted 2.9% other 2.0% covert knife 3.0% classified 2.0% milspec 45.0% exotic 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.36 on average: an expected loss of $12.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt