--- title: "High Risk Huge Reward case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "High Risk Huge Reward ($5.49) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.32% from 9 items with odds, observed 27.09% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [High Risk Huge Reward](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · High Risk Huge Reward A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30?window=all) Price · $5.49 · 8.64 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.32% · EV $4.79 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 27.09% · 26 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min -0.5% 59.0% 118.5% **Small sample.** 26 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30?window=7d) | 26 | 27.09% ±90.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30) | 26 | 27.09% ±90.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/30?window=all) | 26 | 27.09% ±90.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $194 306 HUNT\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $74.51 117 HUNT\_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $51.39 80.94 HUNT\_COIN | 16.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $32.43 51.08 HUNT\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT\_COIN | 20.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Gambit Gaming (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-holo) | 1 in 20 | $8.53 13.44 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $4.50 7.09 HUNT\_COIN | 9.4% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.92× | | [Sticker \| Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) | 22.4% | $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) | 55.0% | $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN | 8.7% | 14 | 14.3 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=30) [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $4.50 7.09 HUNT\_COIN 0.82x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC [Sticker | Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.78 1.23 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $4.50 7.09 HUNT\_COIN 0.82x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) [Janne tough knuckles](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Janne%20tough%20knuckles) $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC [Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $5.49 8.64 HUNT\_COIN $0.76 1.2 HUNT\_COIN 0.14x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.49 | 87.32% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 0.1% classified 11.0% rare 1.5% covert 5.0% other 5.0% #4b69ff 22.4% common 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.32 on average: an expected loss of $12.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt