--- title: "10% Dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Dream ($4.56) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 12 items with odds, observed 119.03% over 192 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344?window=all) Price · $4.56 · 7.18 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $3.99 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 119.03% · 192 openings, odds method Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 119.03% ±42.31 192 openings 30 days · 119.03% ±42.31 192 openings since tracking started · 119.03% ±42.31 192 openings -0.5% 154.5% 309.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344?window=24h) | 6 | 69.27% ±239.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344?window=7d) | 192 | 119.03% ±42.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344) | 192 | 119.03% ±42.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/344?window=all) | 192 | 119.03% ±42.3 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 192 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $86.92 137 HUNT\_COIN | 10.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $85.97 135 HUNT\_COIN | 10.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 17.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.22 79.09 HUNT\_COIN | 12.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $41.28 65.01 HUNT\_COIN | 10.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $38.33 60.37 HUNT\_COIN | 9.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $23.49 36.99 HUNT\_COIN | 5.9% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.60× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $21.68 34.14 HUNT\_COIN | 10.9% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.56× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.76 29.54 HUNT\_COIN | 9.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× | | [Sticker \| Counter-Tech sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-tech) | 30.0% | $0.20 0.32 HUNT\_COIN | 1.5% | 51 | 57.6 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) | 30.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN | 0.6% | 51 | 57.6 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 63 | 57.6 | 1.09× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=344) [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $18.76 29.54 HUNT\_COIN 4.11x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) [Marius Tutunaru](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Marius%20Tutunaru) $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Perfect World (Glitter) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perfect-world-glitter) Hidden $4.56 7.18 HUNT\_COIN $0.08 0.12 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.56 | 87.49% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% classified 4.5% restricted 1.0% Rare 30.0% other 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt