--- title: "10% Guranteed knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Guranteed knife ($19.95) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 8 items with odds, observed 10.26% over 54 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% Guranteed knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% Guranteed knife A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358?window=all) Price · $19.95 · 31.42 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $17.43 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 10.26% · 54 openings, odds method Variance · 18.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 54 openings · below min since tracking started · 54 openings · below min -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% **Small sample.** 54 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358?window=7d) | 54 | 10.26% ±113.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358) | 54 | 10.26% ±113.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/358?window=all) | 54 | 10.26% ±113.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $971 1,529 HUNT\_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $625 984 HUNT\_COIN | 17.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $492 775 HUNT\_COIN | 21.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $382 601 HUNT\_COIN | 11.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $250 394 HUNT\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife) | 1 in 67 | $115 181 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 18.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 52 | 48.6 | 1.07× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=358) [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 16:09 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 16:09 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 16:09 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $19.95 31.42 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 16:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.95 | 87.38% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 1.3% covert 8.8% Consumer Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt