--- title: "Knife Dreamer case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knife Dreamer ($5.24) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.32% from 21 items with odds, observed 15.50% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Knife Dreamer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Knife Dreamer A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361?window=all) Price · $5.24 · 8.26 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.32% · EV $4.58 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 15.50% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 120.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 400 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min -0.5% 187.0% 374.5% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361?window=7d) | 36 | 15.50% ±358.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361) | 36 | 15.50% ±358.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/361?window=all) | 36 | 15.50% ±358.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,976 3,112 HUNT\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,715 2,702 HUNT\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,660 2,614 HUNT\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $1,389 2,187 HUNT\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $1,368 2,154 HUNT\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 8,000 | $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,444 | $926 1,458 HUNT\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 4,444 | $857 1,351 HUNT\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $776 1,223 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $708 1,116 HUNT\_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $550 866 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $546 860 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $519 818 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $437 689 HUNT\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 99.5% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 17.7% | 36 | 35.8 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=361) [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [POSK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/POSK) $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $5.24 8.26 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-08 09:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.24 | 87.32% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.1% legendary 0.0% gold 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% other 0.1% High Grade 99.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.32 on average: an expected loss of $12.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt