--- title: "10% KNIFE case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% KNIFE ($13.84) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 11 items with odds, observed 121.72% over 291 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% KNIFE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% KNIFE A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362?window=all) Price · $13.84 · 21.8 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $12.10 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 121.72% · 291 openings, odds method Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 75 openings · below min 30 days · 121.72% ±35.91 291 openings since tracking started · 121.72% ±35.91 291 openings 56.0% 268.3% 480.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362?window=24h) | 9 | 275.42% ±204.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362?window=7d) | 75 | 127.18% ±70.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362) | 291 | 121.72% ±35.9 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/362?window=all) | 291 | 121.72% ±35.9 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 291 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $971 1,529 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $806 1,269 HUNT\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $449 707 HUNT\_COIN | 5.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $329 518 HUNT\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $226 357 HUNT\_COIN | 7.5% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.58× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 13.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $137 216 HUNT\_COIN | 12.5% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.56× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 18.4% | 12 | 5.8 | 2.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 11.8% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT\_COIN | 15.3% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.26× | | [Sticker \| Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) | 90.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 249 | 261.9 | 0.95× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=362) [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) [Panden](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Panden) $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $226 357 HUNT\_COIN 16.35x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $111 175 HUNT\_COIN 8.02x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $13.84 21.8 HUNT\_COIN $0.81 1.28 HUNT\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-10 10:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.84 | 87.39% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 4.4% gold 0.0% covert 5.2% Immortal 0.4% High Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt