--- title: "GUARANTEED 10% Knife case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GUARANTEED 10% Knife ($8.64) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 14 items with odds, observed 67.42% over 51 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363 rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [GUARANTEED 10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · GUARANTEED 10% Knife A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363?window=all) Price · $8.64 · 13.61 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $7.55 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.42% · 51 openings, odds method Variance · 14.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 51 openings · below min 30 days · 51 openings · below min since tracking started · 51 openings · below min -0.5% 86.8% 174.0% **Small sample.** 51 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363?window=7d) | 51 | 67.42% ±106.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363) | 51 | 67.42% ±106.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/363?window=all) | 51 | 67.42% ±106.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $678 1,067 HUNT\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $525 827 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $431 678 HUNT\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $209 330 HUNT\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $123 193 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $110 173 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $106 168 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $77.78 123 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN | 9.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN | 40.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) | 90.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 46 | 45.9 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=363) [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $69.44 109 HUNT\_COIN 8.04x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $54.91 86.49 HUNT\_COIN 6.35x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [Sticker | TV On Mirage sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-on-mirage) Hidden $8.64 13.61 HUNT\_COIN $0.03 0.04 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.64 | 87.37% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.2% Covert 0.1% covert knife 1.7% high 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt