--- title: "NENI DROP 420 case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NENI DROP 420 ($78.92) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 6 items with odds, observed 210.49% over 28 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [NENI DROP 420](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · NENI DROP 420 A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364?window=all) Price · $78.92 · 124 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $68.96 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 210.49% · 28 openings, odds method Variance · 14.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 28 openings · below min since tracking started · 28 openings · below min 71.0% 364.8% 658.5% **Small sample.** 28 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364?window=7d) | 10 | 425.37% ±232.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364) | 28 | 210.49% ±138.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/364?window=all) | 28 | 210.49% ±138.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT\_COIN | 38.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT\_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $550 866 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $382 601 HUNT\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $362 571 HUNT\_COIN | 31.5% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) | 90.0% | $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN | 1.7% | 22 | 25.2 | 0.87× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $2,623 4,131 HUNT\_COIN 33.24x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $550 866 HUNT\_COIN 6.97x 2026-11-04 08:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=364) [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:07 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $362 571 HUNT\_COIN 4.59x 2026-11-05 16:07 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:07 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) [Alfred](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Alfred) $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:07 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $2,623 4,131 HUNT\_COIN 33.24x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $362 571 HUNT\_COIN 4.59x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) Hidden $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) [Alfred](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Alfred) $78.92 124 HUNT\_COIN $1.28 2.01 HUNT\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $78.92 | 87.37% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.0% covert 1.0% other 1.0% covert knife 1.0% classified 6.0% milspec 90.0% best hit $2,623 (33.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt