--- title: "15% Holo case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "15% Holo ($63.47) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 12 items with odds, observed 104.58% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [15% Holo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 15% Holo A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418?window=all) Price · $63.47 · 99.97 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $55.46 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.58% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 32.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 102 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min -0.5% 159.8% 320.0% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418?window=7d) | 14 | 20.26% ±299.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418) | 38 | 104.58% ±181.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/418?window=all) | 38 | 104.58% ±181.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 760 | $5,903 9,297 HUNT\_COIN | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,555 8,750 HUNT\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,861 7,656 HUNT\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,507 7,098 HUNT\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,660 2,614 HUNT\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN | 3.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $550 866 HUNT\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $444 699 HUNT\_COIN | 12.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $247 389 HUNT\_COIN | 11.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $180 283 HUNT\_COIN | 16.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $103 162 HUNT\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 85.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.0% | 32 | 32.3 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $1,292 2,034 HUNT\_COIN 20.35x 2026-11-04 09:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=418) [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:44 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:44 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:44 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:44 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:40 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:40 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:40 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:40 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Hobbi3ten](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Hobbi3ten) $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:40 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $63.47 99.97 HUNT\_COIN $180 283 HUNT\_COIN 2.83x 2026-11-08 19:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $63.47 | 87.38% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.6% legendary 0.1% other 0.4% #ffd700 0.1% covert 5.3% Covert 2.5% #d32ce6 5.0% consumer 85.0% best hit $1,292 (20.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt