--- title: "Blue Wins case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blue Wins ($23.43) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.39% from 9 items with odds, observed 75.02% over 31 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Blue Wins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Blue Wins A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420?window=all) Price · $23.43 · 36.9 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.39% · EV $20.47 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.02% · 31 openings, odds method Variance · 27.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 31 openings · below min 30 days · 31 openings · below min since tracking started · 31 openings · below min -0.5% 130.0% 260.5% **Small sample.** 31 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420?window=7d) | 31 | 75.02% ±185.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420) | 31 | 75.02% ±185.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/420?window=all) | 31 | 75.02% ±185.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT\_COIN | 24.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $799 1,258 HUNT\_COIN | 19.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $444 699 HUNT\_COIN | 16.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $191 301 HUNT\_COIN | 7.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-foil) | 1 in 40 | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 13.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $70.83 112 HUNT\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN | 8.0% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.58× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.08 19.03 HUNT\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 83.8% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 24 | 26.0 | 0.92× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=420) [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $32.81 51.68 HUNT\_COIN 1.40x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:46 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:46 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:46 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [Kirua](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Kirua) $23.43 36.9 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $23.43 | 87.39% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.0% extraordinary 1.3% other 2.5% industrial 2.5% Legendary 5.0% covert 4.0% Consumer Grade 83.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.39 on average: an expected loss of $12.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt