--- title: "5% African Dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% African Dream ($12.69) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 5 items with odds, observed 95.76% over 145 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% African Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% African Dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421?window=all) Price · $12.69 · 19.98 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $11.09 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.76% · 145 openings, odds method Variance · 145.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 84 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 109 openings · below min 30 days · 145 openings · below min since tracking started · 145 openings · below min -0.5% 174.3% 349.0% **Small sample.** 145 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421?window=7d) | 109 | 121.70% ±226.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421) | 145 | 95.76% ±196.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/421?window=all) | 145 | 95.76% ±196.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.5K 21,218 HUNT\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN | 21.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $581 915 HUNT\_COIN | 48.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 15.0% | $13.06 20.57 HUNT\_COIN | 17.7% | 17 | 21.8 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) | 83.8% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.1% | 126 | 121.5 | 1.04× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $957 1,507 HUNT\_COIN 75.41x 2026-11-05 17:46 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $581 915 HUNT\_COIN 45.82x 2026-11-05 17:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=421) [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $13.06 20.57 HUNT\_COIN 1.03x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) Hidden $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $13.06 20.57 HUNT\_COIN 1.03x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $12.69 19.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.69 | 87.38% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.3% Covert 0.9% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% other 83.8% best hit $957 (75.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt