--- title: "Hustle House Cracks 2% Cheaper on Hunt.gg: odds & RTP" description: "Hustle House Cracks 2% Cheaper ($6.34) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.35% from 6 items with odds, observed 59.54% over 205 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [Hustle House Cracks 2% Cheaper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · Hustle House Cracks 2% Cheaper A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440?window=all) Price · $6.34 · 9.98 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.35% · EV $5.54 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 59.54% · 205 openings, odds method Variance · 72.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 175 openings · below min 30 days · 205 openings · below min since tracking started · 205 openings · below min -0.5% 97.8% 196.0% **Small sample.** 205 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440?window=7d) | 175 | 69.58% ±125.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440) | 205 | 59.54% ±116.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/440?window=all) | 205 | 59.54% ±116.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 205 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT\_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $644 1,015 HUNT\_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $451 711 HUNT\_COIN | 24.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $285 448 HUNT\_COIN | 25.7% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.95× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $95.77 151 HUNT\_COIN | 17.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) | 98.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN | 1.1% | 201 | 200.9 | 1.00× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=440) [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) Hidden $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC [Sticker | Clicking Heads sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clicking-heads) [Macieja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/Macieja) $6.34 9.98 HUNT\_COIN $0.06 0.1 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 09:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.34 | 87.35% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% epic 0.3% Covert 1.5% Rare 98.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.35 on average: an expected loss of $12.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt