--- title: "HustleHouse 1% Fades case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "HustleHouse 1% Fades ($5.00) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.55% from 10 items with odds, observed 76.66% over 198 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [HustleHouse 1% Fades](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · HustleHouse 1% Fades A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 7.88 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.55% · EV $4.38 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.66% · 198 openings, odds method Variance · 267.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 168 openings · below min 30 days · 198 openings · below min since tracking started · 198 openings · below min -0.5% 169.0% 338.5% **Small sample.** 198 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450?window=7d) | 168 | 90.30% ±247.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450) | 198 | 76.66% ±227.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/450?window=all) | 198 | 76.66% ±227.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,333 6,825 HUNT\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,471 5,466 HUNT\_COIN | 15.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT\_COIN | 24.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $679 1,069 HUNT\_COIN | 15.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $271 427 HUNT\_COIN | 6.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $243 383 HUNT\_COIN | 8.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $160 251 HUNT\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $97.09 153 HUNT\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 0.3% | 195 | 196.0 | 0.99× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $271 427 HUNT\_COIN 54.13x 2026-11-07 18:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=450) [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [lostinqreyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/lostinqreyy) $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 7.88 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 87.55% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.6% legendary 0.0% restricted 0.1% covert knife 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.2% consumer 99.0% best hit $271 (54.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.55 on average: an expected loss of $12.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt