--- title: "5% AK Dream case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% AK Dream ($39.59) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 10 items with odds, observed 47.88% over 166 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [5% AK Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 5% AK Dream A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458?window=all) Price · $39.59 · 62.35 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $34.59 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.88% · 166 openings, odds method Variance · 208.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 112 openings · below min 30 days · 166 openings · below min since tracking started · 166 openings · below min -0.5% 448.3% 897.0% **Small sample.** 166 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458?window=24h) | 10 | 0.48% ±895.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458?window=7d) | 112 | 11.96% ±267.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458) | 166 | 47.88% ±219.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/458?window=all) | 166 | 47.88% ±219.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $17.4K 27,343 HUNT\_COIN | 50.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,840 4,473 HUNT\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,708 4,266 HUNT\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN | 12.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $416 656 HUNT\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $326 514 HUNT\_COIN | 4.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $208 328 HUNT\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $139 219 HUNT\_COIN | 4.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $44.25 69.7 HUNT\_COIN | 2.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) | 95.0% | $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN | 0.5% | 160 | 157.7 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $2,236 3,522 HUNT\_COIN 56.48x 2026-11-04 07:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=458) [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) [LEZAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/LEZAS) $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:02 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) [PeitschenMeister](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/PeitschenMeister) $39.59 62.35 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $39.59 | 87.38% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 2.9% classified 0.5% Legendary 0.5% #8847ff 1.0% Uncommon 95.0% best hit $2,236 (56.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt