--- title: "3% dream chase case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "3% dream chase ($12.95) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.37% from 8 items with odds, observed 37.81% over 438 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [3% dream chase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 3% dream chase A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461?window=all) Price · $12.95 · 20.39 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.37% · EV $11.31 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 37.81% · 438 openings, odds method Variance · 113.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 400 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 26 openings · below min 7 days · 192 openings · below min 30 days · 438 openings · below min since tracking started · 438 openings · below min -0.5% 222.3% 445.0% **Small sample.** 438 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461?window=24h) | 26 | 34.42% ±410.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461?window=7d) | 192 | 32.72% ±150.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461) | 438 | 37.81% ±99.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/461?window=all) | 438 | 37.81% ±99.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 438 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT\_COIN | 20.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,708 4,266 HUNT\_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $971 1,529 HUNT\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $507 798 HUNT\_COIN | 11.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $222 350 HUNT\_COIN | 24.6% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× | | [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-foil) | 1 in 80 | $111 175 HUNT\_COIN | 12.3% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) | 97.0% | $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN | 1.6% | 427 | 424.9 | 1.01× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $507 798 HUNT\_COIN 39.15x 2026-11-04 05:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=461) [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) [DiabloPhD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/DiabloPhD) $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC [Sticker | Counter Logic Gaming (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-foil) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $111 175 HUNT\_COIN 8.58x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill) Hidden $12.95 20.39 HUNT\_COIN $0.19 0.3 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 18:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.95 | 87.37% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 7 97.0% contraband 0.1% covert 1.6% Covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% other 1.3% best hit $507 (39.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.37 on average: an expected loss of $12.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt