--- title: "20% WAGER CASE case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "20% WAGER CASE ($1.17) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 6 items with odds, observed 87.49% over 586 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [20% WAGER CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 20% WAGER CASE A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463?window=all) Price · $1.17 · 1.85 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $1.03 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.49% · 586 openings, odds method Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 89.28% ±24.95 517 openings 30 days · 87.49% ±23.44 586 openings since tracking started · 87.49% ±23.44 586 openings 3.0% 77.0% 151.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463?window=24h) | 60 | 76.88% ±73.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463?window=7d) | 517 | 89.28% ±25.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463) | 586 | 87.49% ±23.4 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/463?window=all) | 586 | 87.49% ±23.4 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 586 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $30.57 48.14 HUNT\_COIN | 29.8% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $7.47 11.77 HUNT\_COIN | 10.9% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.25× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.76 7.5 HUNT\_COIN | 23.2% | 35 | 29.3 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.77 5.94 HUNT\_COIN | 18.4% | 36 | 29.3 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.43 5.41 HUNT\_COIN | 16.7% | 26 | 29.3 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) | 82.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN | 1.0% | 474 | 483.4 | 0.98× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=463) [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $3.77 5.94 HUNT\_COIN 3.21x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) [TerorizezBabe.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/TerorizezBabe.) $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $3.77 5.94 HUNT\_COIN 3.21x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) Hidden $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.pro sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro) [TerorizezBabe.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/TerorizezBabe.) $1.17 1.85 HUNT\_COIN $0.01 0.02 HUNT\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.17 | 87.40% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% Legendary 1.5% restricted 5.0% milspec 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% other 82.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt