--- title: "10% HERO AK case on Hunt.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% HERO AK ($12.78) on Hunt.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.38% from 5 items with odds, observed 38.15% over 27 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) / [10% HERO AK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464) # [Hunt.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hunt) · 10% HERO AK A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464?window=all) Price · $12.78 · 20.13 HUNT\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.38% · EV $11.17 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 38.15% · 27 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 27 openings · below min 30 days · 27 openings · below min since tracking started · 27 openings · below min -0.5% 70.3% 141.0% **Small sample.** 27 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464?window=7d) | 27 | 38.15% ±102.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464) | 27 | 38.15% ±102.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hunt/464?window=all) | 27 | 38.15% ±102.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $247 389 HUNT\_COIN | 22.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $144 228 HUNT\_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $86.92 137 HUNT\_COIN | 23.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $41.28 65.01 HUNT\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) | 90.0% | $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN | 13.9% | 26 | 24.3 | 1.07× | Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hunt:api/cases`, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hunt&case=464) [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $86.92 137 HUNT\_COIN 6.80x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) [India4life4416](https://gambatracker.com/players/hunt/India4life4416) $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 09:07 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil) sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-foil) Hidden $12.78 20.13 HUNT\_COIN $1.72 2.71 HUNT\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 08:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.78 | 87.38% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% other 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.38 on average: an expected loss of $12.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt